Will Election 17 be Heaven 17?

All election roads lead to........

Well it's that time again where we've either postal voted, or we'll trot down to our polling station..or will we? will we 'spoil' our ballot paper and vote for a 'no vote'? or will we vote for who we've normally voted for, because that's just what we do..Although if we expect do what we always do, but expect a different outcome-well that's just plain bonkers!

It's fair to say though, that the party who gets in, will steer us through unknown territory, so it's a pretty big vote-but I'm no politician and as I hate it when politicians, journalists etc try and give financial 'guidance' (which is nearly always advice in my opinion!) so I will stop talking politics..but...will whoever gets in, alter the markets? will Sterling shift up or down because of who wins? that Sterling swingshift will have an almighty effect on the FTSE 100, due to the large amount of companies listed there, that shows is values in US Dollars-weaker sterling could lead to higher profits being declared..but has this all been priced in?

Initially, polls suggested that the Conservatives could hold a majority of around 100 seats after the election. Such a scenario would provide the Prime Minister with a strong mandate to drive for a softer Brexit. However, recent polls have since shown the Conservative’s majority falling amid Labour gains. Some polls are now forecasting a real risk of a hung parliament, although others continue to predict a fairly strong victory for the Conservatives

The difference between poll results is largely a function of the methodology by which they are constructed. Polls predicting a larger turn out of young voters (such as that run by YouGov) are constructed using voters’ intentions, but turnout among younger voters has
historically been lower than pre-election voting intentions surveys suggest. As younger voters generally have a greater propensity to vote for Labour, polls calculated in this way tend to show an increased chance of Labour winning. Conversely, polls that estimate
voter turnout based on historical data (such as that run by ICM) are still predicting a fairly large margin of victory for the Conservative Party. Given how unreliable political polls have proved over the last 12 months, we cannot rule out any result, but it appears that voter
turnout among the younger demographic will be the primary swing factor in determining the result

How have markets reacted?

As with many political events, the foreign exchange markets have borne the brunt of volatility surrounding election expectations. Sterling initially rallied strongly after the Prime Minister announced the government’s intention to hold a general election. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 Index also outperformed the multinational-heavy FTSE 100 Index for two reasons. First, the sterling value of the FTSE 100 Index’s multinational constituents suffered an adverse currency-translational impact that domestic-focused companies avoided; Second, expectations that a larger Conservative majority would mean a smoother Brexit process were judged to have a greater positive impact on domestically-focused firms.
Nevertheless, changing expectations surrounding the size of the new Conservative majority have since caused sterling to come under some pressure; it is now trading back at the same level against the euro that it was in mid-March ( noted the euro has also strengthened over this period as European political risk has declined). Domestically-focused UK equities have also underperformed their international counterparts in recent weeks amid increased UK political risk and Brexit uncertainty.Sterling is likely to continue to be the first order casualty in the event that political risk rises. Likewise, the currency’s strength will continue to have a second-order effect on the relative performance of domestically-focused and internationally-exposed UK companies.

The result: what to expect?

Experts say that medium to long-term view remains that sterling is undervalued relative to the other major currencies. However, this view is based on the current political status quo; should the Labour Party win an outright victory, or a ‘progressive alliance’ of Labour and the SNP become possible under a hung parliament, then the UK economic outlook could change markedly, warranting a re-assessment of sterling and other UK assets.
It is believed sterling and UK equity markets are currently pricing in a 50-60 seat majority win for the Conservatives. In the event of this result, there would  be expected to see a small rally in sterling and UK equities as the risk of a hung parliament disappears. If the Conservatives are able to win meaningfully more seats than this, it would be expected that sterling would rally as investors price in a smoother Brexit negotiation process. It would also follow that the FTSE 250 Index to outperform the FTSE 100 Index under this scenario amid a general improvement in UK investor sentiment.

On the other hand, we would expect a strong negative reaction for sterling if the Conservatives do not win a majority. We would also expect linked relative outperformance of the FTSE 100 Index over the FTSE 250 Index, albeit amid sharp declines for domestically exposed UK companies in general. If the Conservatives win with a lower majority than expected, then sterling and UK equities could still come under pressure as Theresa May’s authority is undermined, investors begin to anticipate more difficulty in the forthcoming
Brexit negotiations and, potentially, as the possibility of a Conservative leadership challenge emerges.With the European political backdrop improved, contagion may be limited across the world’s other regions. However, in the case of a very market-unfriendly outcome we cant rule out an adverse impact on broader global investor sentiment, particularly in the short term.

My view?

Now, whilst I cribbed some above from various wealth management companies (Brooks Macdonald being the larger provider of information), the important thing is what do we do? and to that, I say we do we've always done: remain diverse, spread across different assets, different investment focuses and different geographic regions. Markets have priced in an anticipated result, so clearly, if there is a major swing as previously mentioned, then some thought will be needed as to what we do, but I'm not into making swathing changes in the immediate aftermath-we stood firm after the decision to Exit the EU was announced and I suggest the same discipline is applied, come Friday morning.

I will say, is that we have the opportunity to vote-whoever you vote for, or whether you intend to spoil your paper-go to the ballot box-but don't do nothing-if that makes sense?

Oh..Heaven 17? 'Temptation' was the title of one of their singles...have a watch of the video!

See you soon,

Victor

Victor Sacks is an Independent Financial Adviser & director of VS Associates Ltd, which is an appointed Network Lts, who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Victors' blog is an expression of his views and thoughts and is not meant to seen as advice.

If Victor has piqued your interest, why not send him an email :Victor@vsassociates.co.uk, or follow him on twitter @SmartSacks or check out the website www.vsassociates.co.uk

Do I risk it?

The above picture was taken by yours truly, whilst walking around Leicester Square. The question came into my head "would I risk sending my kid to a school to learn the English language, when they can't spell 'English'?" what then followed was another question: "But if you can't speak or spell English, how would you know that it's spelt wrong?"

Which presents a  brilliant Segway into my blog about Risk-History tells us that investors will run to the market place to invest money in the stock markets about now, when markets are at an all time high. Now, as ever, this blog does not set to give financial advice (Because I'd need to know everything about every reader in order to do that!) but hopefully gives some ideas for you to ponder on......

The Oxford living Dictionary, defines risk as "A situation involving exposure to Danger"...Now I'd finish that off by adding "depending upon how close to that danger you get" walking up Ben Nevis following a well trodden path will carry a lower risk than that of getting up it where there is no path.

Equally, when someone has decided that they've had enough of instant access cash rates of say 0.1%, they may try and tie funds up for a year, to earn 1%. The risk will be needing access before the year is up, which may result in a loss of interest. However, going from said bank account to say, 'Mongolian Yak Warrants*' (* I made that up!) would potentially be a higher risk, by that, meaning you could lose money, as well as make money.

So risk, becomes a defining word in that some will want it and some won't-yet; at the sight of the FTSE 100 (currently 7,505 at 2.45pm 17th May 2017) we will see people pile into the market, most often people, who have been in cash deposits for years and after suffering 10 years of inflation reducing the purchasing power of their cash, have just had enough. Not that there is anything wrong with 'piling in' if you can accept the 'pendulum swing' of that four letter word-risk.

Yes dear reader, Risk. That golfer swing, grandfather clock pendulum swing, that goes back and forth. No golfer starts their shot from their two feet & a grandfather clock wouldn't work properly if it swung from centre to right and back to the centre. In these examples, in order to go forward, things need to swing backwards first.

So where are we right now? well....The 'unknown' of France is now a 'known'- a centre party leader, trying to unify his country has been welcomed in European and UK markets, but we have our own election up and coming, Brexit, elections/referendums in Spain, Italy and Germany. North Korea, Trump, Middle East and of course, Greece. Can any of us predict how things will play against this backdrop? A familiar phrase that I've used before is the tailors' adage of "Measure twice, cut once" weigh up the pros and cons of any planned investment strategy you plan to undertake-Are you going to target a specific area? or seek to spread things around? if you go for a targeted area, are you prepared to accept what could go wrong, as well what could go right? being well spread may smooth things but it won't mean you total fund is protected from falling in value,or will you sit tight in cash, knowing the actual value won't change, but there is chance of it being unable to buy you next year, what it can buy you this year.

It really is a time worthy of thought and a chat with a professional...I'd love to have a coffee and a chat with you.

Until next time,

Victor

Victor is an Independent Financial Adviser, and owner of VS Associates Ltd, who are an Appointed Representative of Sense Network, who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

If Victor has piqued your interest, why not call him on 01480-384711 or email victor@vsassociates.co.uk

He Shed,She shed.....

Hello!

Reading an article in 'Investment Week' Magazine, has prompted me to pen a blog... Well... that's not strictly true....Watching the Dow bust through 20,000 points at Lunchtime, seeing all markets in 'green' on my phone app combined with The Tube strike tonight and ongoing Southern Rail issues, made me want to type this blog. On the one hand, we have markets bucking trends at the moment, on the other, concerns over pay, pensions and who will close the train doors.

Why am I highlighting the markets in green (up) and Dow Jones going through the 20,000 point mark? why are we still having strikes? why is there an almost 'Project Fear' now that we are on the cusp on leaving the EU and Single Market?- Change would be my answer.

We don't like it. Moving house, changing banks, changing partners, changing jobs, setting up own business, changing our style, fashion etc there are so many reasons we create in our head to remain as we are, that to change seems almost insurmountable. We tend to start embracing that change, but then doubt creeps in...we may even ask a close friend or relative for their view and the chances are, they'll fear change just as much as you do, and also promote the status quo, meaning more people think you shouldn't change.

If a big corporate (like TFL or Southern Rail) set out to make huge swathes of changes to working practices, it will bring out fear-it is a natural reaction of change-especially when it is perceived to affect pay or benefits. In My straw poll of a few ex-big company employee's, the majority took the changes to areas and working practices and the early mornings, late nights and occasional weekend work (the 'benefits' of a laptop and Blackberry apparently, was to give you a 'work/life balance' or in other words, do more work, from home) for that Final Salary pension and told their partners to bear with it as well. So when that said corporate ditched its Final Salary scheme for one with less generous benefits, those ex-employee's got it in the ear big time from their partner, who suffered aforementioned late nights and weekends, for a pension that now, is not so generous., those ex-staff felt outraged, betrayed and downright upset-especially given the earbashing they got from home and some protested...with hindsight, those employee's were also annoyed with themselves for accepting the workload, but fear of job loss and a journey into the unknown took a hold.  But fear, is only one way things can be looked at. To paraphrase  Richard Jeffrey, the chief economist at Cazenove Capital "...naturally we fear the impact of disrupting the status quo and tend to assume that due to this disturbance, we will suffer a negative impact..."

All to often, we only see one side of a two sided event, after all we could adopt the title of Susan Jeffers book "feel the fear and do it anyway"?

With this, comes the obvious comparison to Donald J.Trump and our own 'Brexit'- Now I have no crystal ball as I have said many times in my blog, but I am prepared to see what happens ( I voted Remain), rather than guess or make assumptions and as Richard Jeffrey continues in the same article "....While we may not like the political and/or social implications of these events (Trump,Brexit) we need to be careful not to allow our concerns at one level, to have an overly prominent influence on our interpretation of the consequences of another. Many people have concerns about some of the more contentious statements that have been made by the new US president, but this does not mean his policies will necessarily harm the US or even World economy...." He goes on to say, that yes, we should be concerned about a change of political direction, as it could undermine free trade, however, we need to recognise that we are NOT in a world of free trade, so disturbing the 'Status Quo' could actually be a good thing.

In another example, I cite clients who up until meeting me, have accepted that bank and cash deposit accounts and a few individual stocks and shares-either held as free shares, or bought on a whim- was the way to invest funds as they were 'uncertain' of using a Financial Adviser. 6 years on, and yes, mixed results experienced along the way, uncertainty is now not an issue.

Ultimately, the changes that will take place (Brexit etc) will test our hard wired, normal thinking pattern and rather than listening to the "he said, she said" chatter, listen to your own mind, have self belief and take that first step......

The Sheds? Mine and Tina's!!!

Victor

Victor Sacks is the owner and director of VS Associates Ltd, an appointed representative of The Sense Network Ltd, who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This blog is based on the article(s) mentioned and the authors own views and not to taken as financial advice.

For a free, initial consultation, or just to meet up and have a coffee, have a look at www.vsassociates.co.uk  contact victor by email: victor@vsassociates.co.uk or tel: 01480 384711 or Mobile:07866 504896 or follow on twitter (@SmartSacks), LinkedIn or Google+

Welcome to 2016..er sorry..2017!

Happy New Year!!!....we all said 10 days ago..yup 10 days have flown by already..Kids back at school, diets have started and ended, fitbits make for a nice bracelet addition...The grey sky punched with holes of blue....

January, statistics tell us, is not our favourite month. For some, its the longest month without income, as traditionally, some employers pay wages before Christmas, then revert to their normal pay period (last Friday in the month for example) in January. Solicitors tell us it's the busiest time for Divorces, though I can't see how the festive period alone can be responsible for this..or is it the in-laws?!! and we all feel pretty gloomy having had a good few days rest at home before beginning the commute to work, not helped by London Underground and Southern Rail train strikes.

Financially, as I've already mentioned, January is tough. Christmas presents, the food, wine etc all put  on the credit card, will be saying 'hello' again in the form of a credit card statement. Perhaps you bought a nice sofa, or large TV that too, will be saying hello..over and over again as it will take 4 years to pay it off and to cap it all, we will now see those holiday adverts, that remind us how hot it is somewhere else, especially when we're wrapped up and the heating is on full blast!

January therefore, is also a good time to take stock of expenses, from checking your utility bill costs on comparison websites, to looking at the food and brands you buy and where you buy it from? Is it cheaper to 'Batch cook' rather than buying ready made meals? Can you make your own bread for less than it costs to buy a loaf? my dear old mum used to say "take care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves" and Tesco's tell us "every little helps." With regards to car insurance, don't just renew with the same provider, ask if they can do it cheaper, or better still, google a new quote, then you can go back to your existing provider with evidence. If they can't match or beat it, then you know what to do.

Life assurance policies can also be re-priced, but before doing so, just check you're not losing valuable benefits by changing. Comparison sites may look good, but its worthwhile seeking advice (not only will you be dealing with a professional, but also someone who is responsible for the advice given) and you know someone who can help you with this?!!!

You might also have a pension, or an Investment that hasn't been looked at in a while-what does 2017 have in store?

Well if I knew the answer, I would be writing this blog from a hot and sunny beach somewhere as that's where I'd be living! what I can say, is pretty much the same as I said in January 2016-its going to be bumpy.

President elect Trump takes office soon, and as I blog, I'm reading about the infiltration of Russian Spies on Donald Trump and they say, they have 'information' which he waves away as fake, which may unsettle the USA, however, its financial markets are doing well and so far, 'the glass is half full' as far as US markets are concerned.....

Here in the UK, we have stood firm since the Brexit Vote. We still don't know what life after Article 50 will look like, but I think we all accept there will be 'ups and downs.' This has been highlighted by the latest industrial output data, which states the UK turned a 1.1% deficit in October, into a 2.1% positive in November (ONS Jan '17) Exports were up £27bn (record increase), however, our imports rose to £39bn (all time high)

Against that set of figures, we can see that costs of imported goods will start to rise.

Elsewhere in Europe, elections loom and in France in particular, there has been a swingshift from Marine le Pen, who if elected, would have encouraged France to leave Europe and indeed, congratulated the UK on it's vote, has now said she believes France is better off in Europe and my own view, is that Europe will play out it's elections (Italy, Germany, Spain and The Netherlands), how David Cameron wanted the UK to play its own-a big enough vote to leave to cause the EU some discomfort, but the majority to vote to Remain.

Further afield, Emerging Markets/ Far East will replicate the USA, in so far as, if the US does well, then so does the far east, however, interest rate rises in the US will hurt the far east and it remains to be seen as to whether Trump decides to trade more with Russia and less with China and the far east and the effect that may or may not have on that part of the world.

Once again, I leave you with familiar words "Fasten your seatbelts, know where the exits are and enjoy your flight"

Victor is an Independent Financial Adviser and Company Director of VS Associates Ltd, an Appointed Representative of The Sense Network Ltd, who are Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

This blog represents the authors own views and is not be considered as Financial Advice.

If Victor has piqued your interest on this, or any financial matter, feel free to contact him via the website: www.vsassociates.co.uk or email: victor@vsassociates.co.uk or do it old school by calling 01480 384711 or 07866 504896

Follow Victor on twitter: @SmartSacks, connect on LinkedIn & Google+